India’s power demand hits record as summer scorches and El Nino threat looms

India’s electricity demand surged to a record high far earlier than usual, underlining the growing strain on the power system as a heatwave grips large parts of the country and a strong El Nino threatens to push temperatures even higher in the months ahead.

Peak power demand touched an all-time high of 256.1 gigawatts (GW) on April 25, surpassing the previous day’s record of 252.08 GW. The spike has been driven by a sharp rise in the use of air conditioners, coolers and other appliances as temperatures crossed 40°C in several regions.

For everyday consumers, this means more electricity is being used at the same time than ever before. For the power sector, it reflects mounting pressure to ensure supply keeps pace with rapidly rising demand.

Early summer surge raises concerns

What stands out this year is the timing. India typically records its highest electricity demand in June or July, when summer peaks. The fact that demand has already hit record levels in April signals an early and intense onset of heatwave conditions.

This shift suggests that electricity consumption could remain elevated for a longer period, increasing the risk of supply stress during the peak summer months.

Coal leads, solar steps up

To meet the surge, India has relied heavily on coal, which continues to form the backbone of its power generation. Coal-fired plants produced around 187 GW during peak demand, while about 9.6 GW of gas-based capacity was also deployed.

State-run NTPC has increased output by operating plants at higher capacity and securing fuel supplies through domestic markets.

At the same time, renewable energy is playing a growing role in supporting the grid. Solar power contributed nearly 57 GW, or about 22 per cent of total generation, during peak demand. This helped reduce pressure on thermal plants, especially during the daytime when solar output is strongest.

El Nino adds to heat risks

The outlook, however, points to even greater challenges ahead. Global weather agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization, have indicated that a strong El Nino is likely to develop from next month.

El Nino, caused by warming ocean waters in the Pacific, typically brings hotter and drier conditions to parts of Asia, often weakening monsoon rainfall and triggering prolonged heatwaves.

Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have already risen to multi-decade highs, and experts say there is strong confidence that the pattern will intensify through the year.

For India, this could translate into sustained high temperatures and further increases in electricity demand, particularly for cooling.

Global energy markets under pressure

The impact is unlikely to be limited to India. Asia accounts for more than half of global electricity consumption, and many countries in the region rely heavily on coal for power generation.

As temperatures rise, demand for electricity — and in turn for coal — is expected to increase, potentially tightening global supplies. This comes at a time when energy markets are already facing disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

Natural gas markets are also under strain. Supply disruptions and rising prices have made liquefied natural gas significantly more expensive than coal, prompting power producers to favour coal despite environmental concerns.

Balancing demand and supply

India’s government expects peak electricity demand to reach around 270 GW this year and has taken steps to ensure adequate supply, including maximising output from coal plants and increasing reliance on hydropower and renewables.

However, the challenge is no longer just about having enough capacity. Managing sharp spikes in demand, especially during extreme weather events, is becoming increasingly critical.

A warning for the months ahead

India’s record power demand in April serves as an early indicator of the pressures that could build across global energy systems if El Nino drives widespread heatwaves.

For consumers, this could mean higher electricity usage and potential strain on supply. For policymakers, it highlights the need to balance immediate energy security with long-term investments in cleaner and more resilient power systems.

As temperatures continue to rise, the coming months will test not just India’s grid, but energy systems around the world.