As Vijay enchants Tamil Nadu in debut election, will he enter NDA fold to form govt?

Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has emerged as the single largest party in Tamil Nadu, leading in over 100 seats, but falling short of the 118-seat majority mark — bringing immediate focus on whether he could eventually align with the NDA through its state partner, the AIADMK, a key ally of the BJP.

While TVK has projected confidence about forming a government independently, the numbers suggest a hung Assembly scenario in which post-poll alliances may become decisive.

Pre-poll negotiations between TVK and AIADMK had collapsed over seat-sharing demands and the projection of Vijay as chief ministerial candidate. However, the post-result scenario could prompt a rethink, especially as AIADMK may view an alliance as an opportunity to regain political ground.

Any potential alignment, however, would effectively place Vijay in indirect proximity to the BJP-led alliance — something he has previously resisted, having described the BJP as his “ideological enemy”, according to an India Today report.

This ideological positioning remains a key hurdle in negotiations.

Thus, Vijay may insist that the AAIADMK distance itself from the BJP if it is to enter into an alliance with TVK. However, such a demand is expected to be politically difficult, given the BJP’s central role in reuniting fragmented AIADMK factions in recent years, reported India Today.

Vijay’s reluctance to align with the BJP is also linked to strained relations following the Karur stampede last year, which claimed over 40 lives, after which the party mounted sharp criticism of the actor-politician.

At the same time, a notable factor influencing the discussion is Vijay’s past interaction with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The actor had met Modi in 2014 in Coimbatore during an election-related visit, a courtesy meeting that has since been frequently revisited in political discourse around his trajectory.

While the meeting was described at the time as non-political, observers note that it could carry symbolic weight in any future political alignment involving the NDA ecosystem.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already ruled out a direct tie-up with TVK, reiterating that the NDA would contest and govern in Tamil Nadu under AIADMK leadership. This effectively places AIADMK as the only realistic bridge — if any —between Vijay and the NDA fold.

The DMK remains unlikely as an option, given Vijay’s sharp criticism of its leadership under MK Stalin.

With the Congress also reaching out and smaller parties in play, TVK holds multiple negotiating options.

Vijay also has the option of steering clear of both the DMK and the AIADMK, choosing instead to keep Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam independent of the two dominant Dravidian blocs.

In this scenario, TVK could explore backchannel negotiations with smaller regional parties aligned to either camp, including the Pattali Makkal Katchi, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam led by Premalatha Vijayakant, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, and All India Moovendar Munnani Kazhagam-aligned formations. Such a route would allow Vijay to avoid dependence on a senior Dravidian partner and attempt to shape his own political identity.

Alternatively, TVK could also attempt to bypass regional alliances altogether and rely on external support, most notably from the Congress. The state Congress has already indicated willingness to extend support if TVK falls short of a majority.

Notably, in the outgoing DMK-led government, Congress was part of the ruling alliance despite not holding cabinet positions, highlighting its flexibility in coalition arrangements.

With inputs from agencies