Will Brazil go back to Bolsonaro? Lula finds new challenger in jailed ex-president's son Flavio

Brazil’s 2026 presidential race looks increasingly competitive as Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has emerged as the main challenger to incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, according to a new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on Wednesday.

The survey, conducted among 5,418 voters between January 15 and 20, found that Lula’s advantage over
Bolsonaro has shrunk significantly in head-to-head scenarios. In a simulated second-round matchup between the two, Lula leads by just four percentage points, a much closer margin than in December’s poll, when his lead was wider. While Lula still sits ahead in voters’ preferences, Flavio’s rising support over recent weeks shows he is gaining traction and reducing the gap with the sitting president.

First-round figures show growing momentum

The latest poll’s first-round scenarios paint a similar picture of Bolsonaro’s momentum. In one simulation that included three candidates, Lula held roughly 48% of the vote, while Bolsonaro secured about 28%. That represents an uptick for Bolsonaro compared with earlier numbers, indicating shifting voter sentiment as the campaign season heats up.

Despite Lula’s continued lead, the trend highlights a significant gain for Bolsonaro within just a few months, a signal that the political landscape in Brazil remains fluid and competitive as the presidential election approaches in October.

Poll reflects wider political dynamics

Flavio Bolsonaro’s rise in the polls comes against the backdrop of a broader conservative movement seeking to reclaim influence after the far-right coalition’s turbulence following the 2022 election. His father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, remains out of the race due to legal barriers and a prison sentence for crimes linked to the attempted coup after his 2022 defeat.

Analysts say Flavio’s increasing support partly stems from conservative voters coalescing around his candidacy, as well as broader dissatisfaction with the current administration among some segments of the electorate. While Lula’s base remains strong, the narrowing margins suggest that Brazil’s election could be far closer than earlier polls indicated.