West Bengal finally turns saffron: 6 factors that led to BJP’s win on Mamata’s home turf

Many, many years ago, Atal Bihari Vajpayee lamented how painful it was for him that the BJP, which had made strides in different parts of the country, was unable to grab a foothold in West Bengal.

Now, years later, the BJP has achieved the unthinkable — trends show that the saffron party has crossed the halfway mark, ousting the Mamata Banerjee-led government, which has retained power in the state for the past 15 years.

This time, it seems ‘Didi’, as Mamata is referred to, was unable to prove the
exit polls . The BJP, on the other hand, is ecstatic as it’s been able to wrest power for the first time in the eastern state of West Bengal.

So, what led to the saffron surge in West Bengal? We examine.

Strong anti-incumbency feeling

The BJP capitalised on the TMC’s 15-year rule in West Bengal. Instead of taking on Mamata personally, the BJP used issues such as unemployment, corruption allegations, and governance to turn the tide.

The BJP focused on attacking the TMC on the extortion-based political system that infuriates most ordinary Bengalis.

Meanwhile, the TMC focused on other matters, namely attacking the Election Commission. She took on the election body on the issue of the
Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, a matter that didn’t resonate with voters.

As The Print notes, this led her to wasting time, which she could have usefully spent wooing her electorate.

The Suvendu factor

Once upon a time, Suvendu Adhikari was Mamata’s close aide. After switching camps, the BJP leader is now her biggest rival.

The BJP can credit some of its victory to Suvendu, who has gone up against the incumbent CM in the seat of
Bhabanipur. This is a playbook started by Arvind Kejriwal in 2015 when he challenged Sheila Dikshit in her home constituency of New Delhi and defeated her.

With the BJP fielding Suvendu from Bhabanipur, they forced her to spend more time defending her own seat, which she could have spent campaigning for her candidates elsewhere.

Countering the ‘outsider’ narrative

One of Mamata’s main weapons in her fight against the BJP has been the ‘outsider’ narrative. Election after election, the Trinamool has painted the BJP as a north Indian party that doesn’t understand Bengali culture and traditions. Numerous claims have been made that the BJP would target Bengalis’ food habits if it came to power.

However, the BJP ensured to counter this narrative efficiently. It showed its leaders eating fish to ensure that voters understood that the BJP knew the Bengali culture. Shamik Bhattacharya, the BJP party chief, stressed that Bengal will have its fish and meat.

Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kolkata’s Thanthania Kalibari temple. This assumed significance as the 300-year-old religious site is known for its rare tradition of offering non-vegetarian Prasad. Once again, this highlighted that the BJP was not interested in policing Bengali plates.

The ‘woman voter’ factor

For Mamata, women have long been the reason for TMC’s electoral success in the state of West Bengal.

Over the last 10 years, the TMC has pushed extensive welfare schemes aimed specifically at women, ranging from Lakshmir Bhandar, a direct cash transfer programme, to the Kanyashree scheme, which supports girls with financial assistance aimed at promoting education and discouraging early marriage.

However, the BJP made women’s safety a key issue, raising the rape and murder at
RG Kar Medical College. The BJP even fielded the victim’s mother from the Panihati seat.

Additionally, the BJP aimed many of its poll promises at the women of Bengal. In their manifesto, the BJP has promised Rs 3,000 monthly assistance, free bus travel, 33 per cent reservation in government jobs, and dedicated women safety measures such as police stations and ‘Durga Suraksha Squads’.

Stronger organisation at the grassroots level

In the previous Assembly election, in 2021, the BJP didn’t have the organisational strength to take on the Trinamool Congress.

However, the BJP fixed this issue. Union Minister Bhupender Yadav, who took over the party’s in-charge for the Bengal battle, focused on strengthening the network of BJP booth workers. The party even conducted oral and written tests to choose its polling agents. For the past six months, the party’s focus has been to build a ground network with two main objectives – countering the fear factor in rural belts and ensuring voters come to the booths.

There’s also the fact that the BJP brought back many of its veteran leaders into the polls. For instance, Dilip Ghosh, the former state BJP chief, had been sidelined in the past few years. But this time, the party leadership brought him back into the spotlight, fielding him from stronghold Kharagpur Sadar.

The crucial ‘Migrant, Muslim and Matua’ vote

Traditionally, the Muslim population, which is 27 per cent, votes in favour of the TMC in elections. In fact, in 2021, the TMC won 75 seats of the 85 Assembly seats where Muslims make up over 35 per cent of the population.

However, in 2026, West Bengal’s districts of Malda, Murshidabad, and Uttar Dinajpur seem to have witnessed a possible shift. Before the polls, there were growing concerns over development, voter list issues, and governance in these areas. This seems to have benefited the BJP.

Moreover, the migrant voter may also have hurt the TMC. This election, many migrants returned home to cast their vote, fearing the deletion of their names from the voters’ list.

There’s also the Matua voters. The Scheduled Caste group that constitutes 17 per cent of West Bengal’s population has been a major vote bank for the BJP, and their continued support has helped propelled the BJP to the pole position in the polls.

In the end, it seems that a combination of factors helped the BJP cross the finishing line with a huge margin.

With inputs from agencies