The India Meteorological Department has projected an early start to the rainy season, with the southwest monsoon expected to reach the Kerala coast on 26th May.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is projected to reach the Kerala coast on 26 May, signaling an early start to the country’s most vital weather season.
The anticipated arrival sits nearly a week ahead of the traditional 1st June onset date. This annual phenomenon marks the beginning of the crucial four month rainfall period that sustains the agrarian economy and replenishes national water reserves through September.
Early onset for the southern coast
Weather officials released the forecast on Friday, noting that atmospheric indicators point toward an accelerated progression of the rain bearing system. In an official statement, the IMD confirmed that “This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on 26th May” while acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of such large scale systems.
Meteorologists have included a standard deviation of four days in their model, meaning the actual arrival could fall anywhere between 22nd May and 30th May. This follows a similar pattern observed last year, when the seasonal rains officially made landfall on 24th May.
Tracking the seasonal progression
Once the monsoon establishes itself over the southern peninsula, it typically begins a northward march, gradually covering the central and northern plains. The timing of this advancement is critical for millions of farmers who rely on these rains for the kharif sowing season.
While the early arrival in Kerala is a positive indicator, the weather office will continue to monitor the intensity and distribution of the winds to ensure the moisture reaches the rainfed regions of the interior in a timely manner.
Economic and agricultural significance
The southwest monsoon is the lifeblood of the Indian economy, accounting for over 70 per cent of the nation’s total annual rainfall. A healthy and timely season is essential for maintaining food security, stabilising commodity prices, and supporting rural demand.
By providing an early forecast, the IMD allows state governments and agricultural planners to coordinate seed distribution and water management strategies. As the 26 May date approaches, all eyes remain on the Indian Ocean as the first clouds of the season prepare to cross the coast.
This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on 26th May with a model error of ± 4 days: India Meteorological Department (IMD) pic.twitter.com/1fw5Whhry8
— ANI (@ANI) May 15, 2026
First Published:
May 15, 2026, 15:49 IST
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