Why Trump-Xi’s summit will be closely watched by India

In a few hours from now, US President Donald Trump will be in China to meet Xi Jinping, capturing the world’s attention. Many are comparing this visit — a first by an American president in nine years — to Richard Nixon’s 1972 meeting with Mao Zedong.

Trump’s visit to China follows months of strain between Washington and Beijing on key issues, including tariffs, the West Asia conflict, and Taiwan.

In India, leaders and analysts will be closely following Trump’s visit to China. Not just because of the geopolitics of it all, but also because Beijing and Washington — the world’s two largest economies—are the biggest trading partners of India.

Trump’s China visit — a first by US president in nine years

In what is being touted as one of the most significant visits of world leaders, US President Donald Trump will travel to China today (May 13) for a state visit until May 15.

Trump’s visit to Beijing comes after an invitation by Chinese President Xi Jinping. On this visit, the US president is being accompanied by
16 high-profile business leaders, including Elon Musk and Tim Cook. Moreover, Hollywood movie director Brett Ratner, who is responsible for the Rush Hour movies, is also accompanying the US president to China.

In Beijing, Trump and Xi are expected to
discuss trade, Iran, tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals. The visit aims to improve trade ties and strengthen US economic and national security interests. Both sides are also expected to discuss setting up a US-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, along with cooperation in aerospace, agriculture, and energy.

Ahead of his departure, Trump projected strength, telling the media, “We’re the two superpowers. “We’re the strongest nation on Earth in terms of military. China’s considered second.”

When asked about his priorities for the visit, Trump noted, “We have a lot of things to discuss. I wouldn’t say Iran is one of them, to be honest with you, because we have Iran very much under control.”

The US president also exuded confidence in his ties with his Chinese counterpart, portraying the trip as a success before he left White House grounds. However, as Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser on Chinese business and economics at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, noted,
China appears to be entering the meeting from a “much stronger place”.

Asia looks on with concern

For Asian nations, Trump’s visit to China is very important, with almost all of them having some kind of stake. As Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CNBC, “Virtually everyone has a stake in the outcome of this meeting.”

This also means that other world leaders and interested parties will be paying close attention — even if they won’t be in the room when decisions are made that might have far-reaching consequences for them.

Eswar Prasad, professor of economics at Cornell University, told CNBC that a contentious summit that deepens tensions could prolong economic and geopolitical volatility, crippling global trade and growth. “The entire world will be hoping that the two leaders can reach an agreement on at least a subset of issues… and find ways to prevent any further escalation of tensions on the remaining ones,” he added.

Many in Asia fear that Trump’s desire to strike a deal with Xi could lead to the US president softening on China. This, in turn, could lead to a fear of abandonment among US allies. For instance, in order to get Xi to strike a deal, Trump could end the weapons sale to
Taiwan. For Taiwan, this would be a nightmare. Moreover, any concession on Taiwan could lead other American partners to fear abandonment. It would also bolster Beijing’s push for compliance on contested territory elsewhere, from the border with India to the South China Sea.

Asian countries will also be watching the Trump-Xi meeting for any dramatic shift in US tariffs on Chinese goods relative to those on their own exports. The Strait of Hormuz is also a major issue for the region.
Southeast Asian nations, heavily reliant on oil from the Gulf nations, have borne the brunt of the energy shock triggered by the West Asia conflict.

Why Trump’s visit to China matters to India

In India, leaders and pundits would be keeping a close eye on Trump’s visit to China. Experts note that the US president weakened by the Iran war will have lesser leverage against Xi, putting him in a tough position.

As a result, Trump could set aside past policy and side with Beijing on a number of issues, which could hurt India. For instance, last year, Trump imposed steep tariffs on India and other US allies, such as Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. Meanwhile, China secured concessions after threatening to block the supply of rare earths to America.

India will also be hoping that Trump is able to negotiate with Xi on the matter of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran war. The US is pushing for China to use its leverage to get Iran to end the war. Such a move will benefit New Delhi as most of its oil and gas passes through the vital chokepoint.

There’s also the matter of India’s position vis-à-vis China and the US. New Delhi has been a great beneficiary of the US-China rivalry. When Washington and Beijing are at each other’s throats, both look at New Delhi to be the counterbalance. This has resulted in deepened tech partnerships, capital flows, and India playing the swing partner between the two nations. As News9Live reports, India needs the rivalry between China and the US to stay alive, yet be managed.

For New Delhi, any concessions by Trump to China over Taiwan also matter. This is because it would bolster Beijing’s expansionist nature and try to grab Indian land. New Delhi is also apprehensive about the US and China forming the G-2, as that would reduce India’s strategic importance.

India’s energy security would also be highly disadvantaged if China manages to secure exemptions from the US. And if a ‘Board of Trade’ to manage US-China trade ties gets set up, India runs the risk of being bypassed in the process, thereby eroding its importance.

For now, India will be looking on closely at the Trump-Xi meeting, as there’s so much to lose and yet so much to gain.

With inputs from agencies