What does the war in West Asia have to do with your sneakers getting pricier? Alongside a range of disconnected products like surgical gloves, sports goods, and car components, among others. The answer is simple: the rubber industry is currently facing a perfect storm of cost headwinds. And it is all adding up to price pressure.
What has been the impact of the West Asia conflict on the rubber industry?
One look at the numbers tells the story. The war in West Asia has come at a time when natural rubber (NR) prices were already going up. Natural rubber prices have soared up to Rs 221 per kg, up from Rs 200 per kg a month ago, says Anay Gupta, president of the All India Rubber Industries Association (AIRIA). “Since January, NR prices have gone up 20 per cent and since the war started by 10 per cent,” he adds.
The prices of natural rubber go up and down routinely, so that alone is not a very big red flag. However, the West Asia conflict has increased the
price of crude because of logistics disruption;
higher insurance prices have also kicked in. Since synthetic rubber is a crude derivative, these prices have gone up by 60-70 per cent in the last month, says Gupta.
There are different varieties of synthetic rubber. Nitrile Butadiene Rubber, for example, has seen its India price jump from Rs 180 per kg to Rs 340 per kg in the last month or so. Styrene Butadiene Rubber has gone from Rs 180 per kg to Rs 300 per kg, says Gupta. Carbon black has gone from Rs 80 per kg to Rs 160 per kg. “Overall, the average raw material price basket has seen a 14 per cent increase,” he explains.
How much rubber does India import?
The rubber industry is hit by both natural cyclicality and the West Asia conflict. India imports around 50 per cent of its synthetic rubber from the US, Japan, Germany and Korea. As for natural rubber, India has been trying to increase domestic production, but despite expanding rubber plantations to Northeastern states, the tyre industry imports nearly 40 per cent of its requirement of natural rubber.
How does the increase in rubber prices impact everyday items?
A large chunk of synthetic rubber goes into tyre production, but tyre companies have longer contracts and enough raw material stock so they can survive for another two to three months, say auto industry sources. But it is the non-tyre rubber sector — footwear, flooring, automotive rubber,
pharma, household goods, sports goods — where the cost pinch is already starting to hurt. Many of the vendors in this supply chain are MSMEs, so their pricing muscle is nonexistent. “Prices are already up by 15-20 per cent since the war began because all rubber components are crude-based,” says Gupta.
According to a just-released report by Crisil, the West Asia conflict has seen Brent crude prices rise 45 per cent month-on-month in March and 42 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, natural gas prices went up by around 69 per cent month-on-month and 35 per cent year-on-year. Add to that the freight cost for Baltic dirty tankers, which jumped around 75 per cent month-on-month and more than trebled year-on-year, and the pain points become clearer.
What are the other industries taking a hit?
Rubber, of course, is not the only sector keeping its fingers crossed that the
ceasefire deal between Iran and the US will last. Analysts say West Asia exports have taken a hit due to logistics and supply chain challenges, though the impact is mixed on different sectors.
In fiscal 2025, India exported goods worth $57 billion to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (13 per cent of goods exports) and $9 billion (2 per cent) to other West Asian countries. For some exportables like
basmati (70 per cent), boneless bovine meat (30 per cent), ceramic products (25 per cent) and gems and jewellery (20 per cent), the geography of conflict holds a higher weightage. According to Crisil, sectors like synthetic textiles, speciality chemicals, diamond polishers, flexible packaging and certain auto components will face a medium pinch in the medium term. Sectors like ceramics and
aviation are the ones expected to take the biggest hit in the near-term.
What makes the rubber industry particularly vulnerable to the conflict?
According to a recent report by ICRA, India’s credit rating agency, natural rubber comprises 30 per cent of the raw material mix for tyres in volume terms, while the “rest of the 70 per cent is dominated by crude oil derivatives such as synthetic rubber (20 per cent), carbon black (25 per cent), and fabric (10 per cent), among others”. That explains why the tyre sector and, by extension, the entire rubber industry is vulnerable to any price volatility due to the ongoing conflict.
In the non-tyre synthetic rubber segment, India manufactures around 35,000 items, including footwear soles (that’s where your sneakers come in), conveyor belts, hoses, cables, seals, rubber mats, sealants and silicone rubber used in the medical and pharma industry. Exports in this segment are around $5-6 billion, with the UAE a major destination. (The GCC region gets 8 per cent of India’s $3 billion tyre exports.)
In other words, the price pressure on rubber — natural and synthetic — will bite both domestic demand and exports. The good news is that the government has taken steps to make raw material imports cheaper. Import duty on some ingredients to make synthetic rubber has been reduced from 7.5 per cent to 0 per cent, offering major relief to the sector, says Gupta.
So, coming back to your sneakers, next time you come across a war headline, check the impact on your footwear. It’s not just petrol and LPG that have a Hormuz headache.
(Nandini Sengupta is a freelance writer and author of several books. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)
First Published:
April 14, 2026, 17:44 IST
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